Washington, D.C. – The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has revised down Nigeria’s economic growth projection for 2023 by 0.3 percentage points to 2.9%, primarily citing weaker oil and gas production as a contributing factor. This adjustment was revealed in the IMF’s latest World Economic Outlook report, titled ‘Navigating Global Divergences,’ released on Tuesday.
In its previous projection in July, the IMF had anticipated Nigeria’s economy to grow by 3.2% in 2023 but expressed concerns that growth could be hampered by security issues affecting the oil sector.
Explaining the rationale behind the revised forecast for Nigeria, the IMF stated, “Growth in Nigeria is projected to decline from 3.3% in 2022 to 2.9% in 2023 and 3.1% in 2024, with negative effects of high inflation on consumption taking hold. The forecast for 2023 is revised downward by 0.3 percentage point, reflecting weaker oil and gas production than expected, partially as a result of maintenance work.”
According to the National Bureau of Statistics, Nigeria’s GDP grew by 2.51% in the second quarter of 2023.
The IMF also noted that growth in the sub-Saharan African region is expected to decrease to 3.3% in 2023 due to worsening weather shocks, a global economic slowdown, and domestic supply challenges. However, it anticipates a gradual recovery, with growth reaching 4.0% in 2024, although this would still be below the region’s historical average of 4.8%.
On a global scale, the IMF predicts a slowdown in economic growth from 3.5% in 2022 to 3.0% in 2023 and further to 2.9% in 2024, significantly below the historical average of 3.8% (2000–19). It attributes this decline to policy tightening impacting advanced economies and a modest decrease in growth for emerging market and developing economies, dropping from 4.1% in 2022 to 4.0% in both 2023 and 2024.
Furthermore, the IMF expects global inflation, which has been on the rise, to fall from 8.7% in 2022 to 6.9% in 2023 and further to 5.8% in 2024.