A study published in the open access journal BMJ Public Health has warned that the United Kingdom’s ongoing inflation-driven cost-of-living crisis could have severe health consequences, potentially “cutting lives short” and “significantly widening the wealth-health gap.” The study used modeling to predict that the proportion of people dying prematurely (under the age of 75) could increase by nearly 6.5 percent due to the sustained period of high prices.
The study also revealed that the most deprived households would experience four times as many additional deaths as the wealthiest households. This disparity is due to the fact that the poorest households have to allocate a larger portion of their income to cover rising energy costs.
The researchers examined the impact of inflation on death rates in Scotland for the year 2022-2023, both with and without mitigating measures, such as government support to reduce household bills. The data collected was then used to model various potential future outcomes for life expectancy and inequalities across the entire UK.
Without any mitigation, the model showed that inflation could lead to a five percent increase in deaths in the least deprived areas and a 23 percent increase in the most deprived areas. However, with mitigation measures in place, these percentages decreased to two percent and eight percent, respectively, resulting in an overall increase in premature deaths of approximately 6.5 percent.
The study concluded that the impacts of inflation and real-terms income reduction on mortality are likely to be significant and negative, with pronounced inequalities in how different groups are affected. It also suggested that current public policy responses may not be sufficient to protect public health and prevent the widening of health inequalities.
The United Kingdom has experienced elevated inflation rates, driven by factors such as coronavirus lockdowns, Brexit, and the conflict in Ukraine. While UK inflation unexpectedly slowed in August to 6.7 percent from a high of 11.1 percent, it remains the highest among G7 nations. The study underscores the need for comprehensive policy measures to address the health and economic challenges posed by the cost-of-living crisis.